Posts Tagged ‘Indecision 2012’
2 Hours to Go
Posted on January 3, 2012 at 6.37 pm
In less than two hours, Iowa caucusgoers will begin their complicated process of selecting their preferred candidate for the Republican nomination for the presidency. So here’s an update of some stuff which has been happening in the final days of the Iowa campaign:
- Attacks, attacks, and more attacks. Even from Gingrich, who had vowed not to go negative but ultimately found that strategy unsuccessful.
- Ron Paul is in competition only with Mitt Romney for viral support on Facebook, but even Romney willingly conceded that Paul’s ads against Newt Gingrich were the best of the campaign season — and an Iowa State prof agrees. On Twitter, WaPo finds Paul is king uncontested, beating out even the President for mentions.
- In terms of last ditch efforts, Santorum is relying on lots of personal appearances; Perry is spending big on TV ad buys; and Bachmann appears to seriously expect divine intervention.
- Many Iowa voters are heading to the caucuses still undecided — a remarkable feat after no less than 18 debates. Interestingly, Romney’s“ignore Iowa” strategy has pulled him basically the exact same percentage of support he had after a huge campaign in the state in ‘08. Newt, meanwhile, has essentially admitted defeat in Iowa after voters got to know him a little too well.
- Finally, Buzzfeed has found a strong similarity between the campaign plans of Ron Paul 2012 and Barack Obama 2008 in an article titled “Ron Paul’s Secret Plan to Actually Win.” I’m not sure this plan is supposed to be a secret, but here’s hoping he does indeed win.
One of These Things Is Not Like the Others
Posted on October 5, 2011 at 8.44 am
Q. Hello Bonnie. Regarding the likelihood of Ron Paul gaining the GOP nomination, you have said ” it’s almost certain he will not be the nominee” (2/25/10), “the Republican Party would never give him the nomination” (1/8/11) & most recently, “he isn’t too likely to get the nomination” (10/2/11) — why is this? Thanks in advance! — Trevor, from tumblr.
A.Well, have you noticed the sorts of people the GOP has selected to run for president in the past few cycles? Or have you taken a look at the rest of the Republican field both this time, and in 2008 — or heck, in 2000? McCain, Guiliani, Thompson, Santorum, Brownback, Pawlenty, Romney, Huckabee.
Though we do have Gary Johnson giving a similar message to Ron Paul this time (and being completely ignored as a result), by and large Dr. Paul sticks out like a sore thumb. The message he’s offering really is different from the current mainstream of the Republican Party. I mean, there’s a reason why he’s probably the only top tier candidate who would put Dennis Kucinich in his cabinet — let alone hold a civil conversation with him.
On foreign policy (especially in a moral and legal sense), on civil liberties, and on a number of significant social issues, Ron Paul simply does not toe the party line. On fiscal and monetary policy, he toes it way too much, and I suspect other Republicans resent him for making them look much less conservative by comparison.
That’s not to say, however, that Ron Paul and his ideas aren’t making strong inroads into the GOP. Though I’d suggest that most of the changes are more in rhetoric than action at this point, and that some of it can be attributed to simple partisanship — i.e. what was ok with Bush is anathema under Obama, his message of a humble foreign policy (if only for fiscal reasons) and the importance of civil liberties (if only in regards to the TSA) and the indivisibility of freedom (if only among young Republicans who’d like to try pot) is slowly getting through. Depending on the outcome of this election, I am optimistic that it could continue to make progress, albeit probably with a different messenger. I think there’s still a long way to go, however — too far to go between now and February 2012, by which point most primaries will be decided.
The other major factor is that Ron Paul does not have huge corporate interests backing him. He’s legitimately a grassroots candidate, funding his campaign on many small donations from individual citizens. But the reason he doesn’t have backing is also a big reason I don’t think the GOP will nominate him: He’s a threat.
Have you heard the kind of cuts he’d make to the military-industrial complex, for instance? Statements like that don’t make the wealthy owners and shareholders of that complex terrifically happy. I can assure you that they, and other powerful corporate and political interests who would lose in the event of a Ron Paul victory, are not sitting this election out.
Questions I’d Submit for the Next GOP Debate
Posted on September 21, 2011 at 9.58 pm
The cool folks at DC Decoder are rounding up short sets of questions/expectations/hopes for the next GOP debate from a handful of political bloggers. I’m not totally sure what the end goal is, but it sounds like a sweet idea. They were kind enough to ask me to participate, and these are the questions I submitted:
- If you support a strong defense, do you want to keep our military spread thin in 130 nations and more than 650 bases worldwide?
- If you claim to adhere to the Constitution, do you support undeclared by Congress — and therefore unconstitutional — wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and arguably Pakistan and Somalia?
- If you claim to adhere to the Bill of Rights — notably the Fourth Amendment — do you support the PATRIOT Act?
- If you are a fiscal conservative, name two specific spending cuts you would support immediately as president and estimate the amount each would save per year.
- If you affirm the Declaration of Independence, please explain why the freedom to pursue happiness excludes recreational drug use which does not interfere with anyone else’s liberty, person, or property.
- If you are pro-life, please explain if your principles extend to unborn Iraqi and Afghan children. If not, explain why not.
- If you consider yourself a Christian, please quote any Bible passages you are aware of in which we might find Jesus changing people’s morality through legislation, keeping in mind that Jesus himself states that he supersedes the law of the Old Testament.
